The 2023 NFL Draft is officially one month away, meaning the entire NFL is honing in on one of the most critical yearly pieces of roster construction. And most recently, we at The Athletic conducted our second beat writer mock draft of the offseason and our first since all the free-agency movement.
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Operating with the mindset of Bills general manager Brandon Beane, I didn’t love what was available with the 27th selection and viewed the players at need positions as mostly second-round talent. So, I cast a line in some Slack channels, sat back and waited for interested trade parties.
The Lions came calling, and after some back-and-forth proposals with our Lions beat writer Colton Pouncy, we ultimately agreed to a deal that netted the Bills an additional second-round pick. It moved the Bills’ earliest pick down to No. 48, but they now held three second-round selections in Nos. 48, 55 and 59.
But one question from readers kept popping up following the exercise. What would the rest of the Bills’ draft under that trade scenario have looked like? So I decided to use that as the genesis of my newest, Bills only mock draft.
Let’s get started.
Full beat writer mock draft trade details: Lions get Nos. 27 and 137, Bills get Nos. 48, 55, 183, 194
Bills picks after trade: Nos. 48, 55, 59, 91, 130, 183, 194, 205
Bills mock draft 1.0| Bills mock offseason Part 2: NFL Draft
No. 48: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
With some of the first-round targets off the board before the Bills selected at No. 27, Campbell became the target in a trade-down scenario. They could have stuck and picked him, but that didn’t seem like good value. Instead, a move down to the mid-second round makes Campbell and his position a great value, especially if he can step in immediately as the starting middle linebacker. He has the size (6-foot-4, 249 pounds), instincts and coverage skills the Bills covet in a middle linebacker position. And although the Bills have continued to say all the right things about Terrel Bernard and Tyrel Dodson potentially battling for a starting job, the same can still be true with a high-level prospect like Campbell ideally suited to the position as part of the competition.
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Plus, coach Sean McDermott has a strong admiration for the Iowa program, and obtaining one of its long-term leaders for one of the Bills’ key leadership roles is quite the pairing. The middle linebacker spot feels as light as cornerback did heading into last year’s draft. They’ve held off from adding any veteran players to the position, likely for a reason. It would be a big surprise if the Bills ignored linebacker in the draft altogether unless the board ultimately got away from them.
The Athletic’s Nate Tice on Campbell: “Campbell’s awareness does carry over against the pass. He is at his best in zone, where he can read the game, make plays on the ball and get into passing lanes. He’s also a fluid enough mover to hold his own in man. Campbell has the size and athleticism to quickly adjust to the NFL. He doesn’t always play to his testing numbers, but if he becomes more comfortable, he has the ideal traits and play style to be a three-down linebacker.”
No. 55: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
Separation, versatility and run after catch. The Bills covet this in their receivers and have focused far less on size as their offense has evolved. That’s just what Mims brings to the table. Mims has fear-inducing speed and striding ability for opposing defenses. He routinely showed at Oklahoma that he could play on the boundary and rip past defenders whether on the initial catch or after the catch for additional yards. Mims has the size (nearly 5-foot-11 and 183 pounds) and shiftiness to play inside at slot receiver as well. Mims looks like a potential NFL starter with a lot of upside in the Bills’ offense.
The Athletic’s Diante Lee on Mims: “An explosive vertical threat from Oklahoma, Mims averaged more than 20 yards per reception in his last two seasons. His speed was verified by his 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and the Sooners made full use of that speed, taking chances whenever they confirmed one-on-one coverage on the perimeter. Mims will likely spend more time as a move-around “Z” receiver and slot than as the primary outside threat in the NFL. If he lands in a play action-heavy offense, you can expect him to stretch the field vertically or on deep crossing routes.”
GO DEEPERBills NFL Draft 2023 guide: Picks, predictions and key needsNo. 59: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
Although the Bills signed Taylor Rapp to a low-cost one-year deal, there is no guarantee they’ll be able to bring him back next year or if they’ll have the funds to do so. After Jordan Poyer re-signed, there has always been room this offseason for adding two pieces. Rapp is their locked-in primary backup to Poyer and Micah Hyde for 2023, but a significant long-term element still needs to be added to the safety room. And if they find the correct value on Day 2 or early Day 3, it should remain a significant consideration despite already having Rapp. And even if they sign Rapp again in 2024, Hyde is a free agent after this season, with Poyer a free agent following 2024. It’s time to look forward at safety, as the Bills probably should have done in last year’s draft. Enter Johnson (6-foot-2, 198 pounds), who offers the Bills the versatility to line up at both positions in their scheme. They wouldn’t have to force him on the field early in his career, instead utilizing him on special teams and in special sub-packages. He would then have the opportunity to learn the game from two accomplished safeties in Poyer and Hyde, as they set Johnson up to be the heir to one of the starting jobs as their careers wind down.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler on Antonio Johnson: “What a “prototypical” safety looks like in today’s NFL is always evolving. However, Johnson might be the ideal modern-day safety because of his size, athleticism and overall versatility. He has a long, impressive frame with room to continue to fill out. His play strength stands out with his power as a tackler and the way he finishes at the football. Although he isn’t a player with elite speed, Johnson has fluid movement skills with read-and-react quickness to lock down receivers in coverage.”
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No. 91: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
The Bills appear to remain committed to signing three-technique defensive tackle Ed Oliver to a contract extension at some point, which makes the need for a long-term starter at one-technique next to him a big piece of the future puzzle. Ika got his weight down for the NFL combine to 335 pounds, but even when he was at 350 pounds, his ability to explode through the offensive line stood out to many draft analysts. He has the versatility to play both defensive tackle positions, which is important to the Bills, but the one-technique would be his home base within their scheme. With Ika, they can have him learn from starter DaQuan Jones while in a rotational role and then take over as the starter as early as 2024. Jones is a free agent following the 2023 season. With Jordan Phillips back on a one-year deal plus Ika, the Bills can roll with nine defensive linemen just as they did last season.
Brugler on Siaki Ika: “For a 350-plus-pounder, Ika has rare short-area quickness and disruptive traits. He stays nimble on his feet, with the length, hand strength and body flexibility to press blockers from his frame and redirect his momentum. Ika’s power and anchor were expected, but the explosiveness and fluidity for a player that size were a pleasant surprise.”
Texas’ Roschon Johnson (2) could be a long-term feature in the Bills offensive backfield. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
No. 130: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
Already in my first two Bills-only mock drafts (see previous mock exercises above), Johnson might wind up going coast-to-coast in these up to the draft. Why? The simple reason is that he is everything they could want out of a fourth-round pick and backup running back in one. He has speed, power, size (6-foot, 225 pounds) and looks perfectly suited to an early-career special teams role while his rushing skills develop in the background. Even with Damien Harris on the roster, there is a spot for Johnson to be the long-term running mate with James Cook after Harris’ one-year contract expires next March.
Brugler on Johnson: “Johnson is built almost like a linebacker with his broad shoulders, core power and long arms. He uses that size to drop his pads and pump his legs through contact, routinely breaking tackles with his forward lean. Although he’s a little too much of a straight-line runner, he has open-field speed plus the versatility to be a reliable screen target and blocker.”
TRADE! No. 154: Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma
Trade Details: Seattle gets No. 183, No. 194, Buffalo gets No. 154
Part of the reason I conceded pick No. 137 in the Lions deal was with the idea to package those two early sixth-rounders to get back into the fifth. That was just the play here, and I moved up to take an athletic offensive tackle with potential just sitting around the board. Morris has great size (6-foot-5, 307 pounds), arm length (over 35 inches) and tested very well athletically. The Bills have targeted an overly athletic profile along the offensive line over the last two offseasons. Given the additions of Connor McGovern and David Edwards this offseason, it would be surprising if they went away from it now. Morris would compete with David Quessenberry and Tommy Doyle for the primary backup role to Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. Beane doesn’t seem to be in as big of a hurry to replace Brown in the starting lineup as others out there, but adding depth to the position should remain a consideration.
No. 205: Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State
It’s a great tight end draft class, so the Bills should try to come away with one at some point. Dawson Knox is their locked-in starter for a long time to come, but the team likely wants to run more two-tight end formations. The only reason to do that is to make opponents account for the run, and without a backup tight end who blocks well, it takes away some of their versatility. The Bills are lacking that skill set with No. 2 tight end Quintin Morris. Strange (nearly 6-foot-4, 253 pounds) would bring that skill set to the Bills and could fill in for Reggie Gilliam at fullback if needed.
2023 Bills mock draft
| Pick | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|
48 | LB | Iowa | |
55 | WR | Oklahoma | |
59 | S | Texas A&M | |
91 | DT | Baylor | |
130 | RB | Texas | |
154 | OT | Oklahoma | |
205 | TE | Penn State |
(Top photo of Marvin Mims: Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
Joe Buscaglia is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the Buffalo Bills. Joe has covered the team since 2010. He spent his first five years on the beat at WGR Sports Radio 550 and the next four years at WKBW-TV in Buffalo. A native of Hamburg, N.Y., Buscaglia is a graduate of Buffalo State College. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeBuscaglia
